I read Mark Penn’s book Microtrends earlier this year and one of the more interesting parts was the massive amount (600k per year) of felons that are being released from America’s prisons.

So we are releasing hundreds of thousands of the hardest to employ Americans at the same time our unemployment rates are spiking. What does this mean? Well if historical rates of recidivism are right then we are going to see a national crime wave that will leave many Americans fearing for their personal saftey. So you can pretty much guaruntee that political campaigns will gear their message to match.

You can also pretty much count on bet that when people don’t feel safe they will start buying guns. As crime rates go up there will be those that will want to blame it on the guns and try to limit ownership. The good news is that most folks will not be to willing to part with those guns if they don’t feel safe.

More later…

Florida GOP’s Lessons from the Trenches

CF Tell me about Florida?

EV Due to its sheer size, the State of Florida necessitates more than retail politicking—it requires any statewide campaign to have a methodical and energized ground game that can conquer ten media markets and a message that resonates with an incredibly diverse population—Hispanics from distinct countries of origin, African Americans, Veterans, seniors, the Jewish community, and military families, to name a few.  This vast state compels campaigns to master a complex political strategy that incorporates the ever-critical I-4 corridor, “condo commandos,” Hispanic Little Havana, and conservative Northwest Florida.  As a political party, the Republican Party of Florida is here to provide support, guidance, infrastructure, and fundraising for campaigns, from the presidential campaign down to the Broward County Sheriff’s race.

CF What does Obama’s victory in Florida over the McCain campaign say about the political ground game in Florida?

EV It shows that this was a perfect Democrat year.  The Obama campaign simply had more resources.  The Obama camp out-spent McCain 7-1 in Florida, an extreme TV state where TV advertising is critical to success.  I would note, however, that because of the Republican team in Florida, McCain came within 21/2 points of winning Florida—which says a lot about the folks who worked tirelessly across Florida on behalf of the Republican ticket. Additionally, while Florida Democrats were awash in cash, political operatives, and newly registered Democrat voters, the Florida Democrat Party utterly failed to take advantage of it, defeating not one single Republican incumbent in the Florida House or Senate. Congressmen Gus Bilirakis and Bill Young both got 60+% in Tampa – an area Obama carried. In Miami – another area Obama carried – Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart both fended off credible, well-funded, DCCC-backed candidates. I think our performance across the board bodes very well for the Florida GOP.

 CF How did the Florida GOP stack up against the Democrats as far as mobilizing grassroots supporters and organizing GOTV?

EV Under the leadership of our Executive Director, Political Director, and 72-hour Director, Florida led the nation in the number of volunteer voter contacts six of the last seven weeks of the 2008 Election Cycle. Through our volunteer efforts, we contacted more voters in 2008 than in 2004, touching more than four million voters this year.  We made over one million phone calls and knocked on more than 100,000 doors during the 72-Hour Program. The RPOF also created a new Absentee Ballot Request Walk Program and implemented Absentee Chase efforts, which were nationalized by the RNC. Additionally, we installed VOIP phones and used bubble sheets with cell phones to better capture data on targeted voters.

On the grassroots communications front, we launched a text message pilot program of using text messages to contact volunteers and voters.  We also upgraded to an enterprise level blast email distribution system that allows for more segmentation in selecting email recipients. Additionally, each Victory staffer was provided with an account and personalized segments for each county to aide in volunteer recruitment and retention and to provide greater communication between field offices and volunteers.

 CF Do you think you utilized New Media effectively?

EV I think there is always more we can do. For example, we are going to have a hands-on training session at our Annual Meeting in January to show folks how to use text-messaging.  Keep in mind that many of our grassroots activists are older Floridians who haven’t necessarily had much experience with cell phones, the Internet, email, or social networking. 

That said, we’ve accomplished a lot this election cycle, especially this year, communicating to both grassroots supporters and the media via Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, our Conventional Wisdom blog, and text messaging.  The challenge is to integrate them all together. We’ve done some comprehensive prospecting, cleaned up and built our e-mail lists, implemented the new email system I referred to earlier, and synchronized fundraising efforts.  We also advertised online on carefully-targeted sites to maximize the effect.

I am especially proud of our Conventional Wisdom blog (http://rpofconventionalwisdom.blogspot.com/), it was an instant hit and picked up by the media. Disclaimer—Mark Halperin’s The Page was our inspiration and I hope he checks our blog every now and then to see how we’re stacking up. We originally launched the blog during the Democrat National Convention (hence the name “Conventional Wisdom”) to provide a running commentary of video messages, articles/updates, and exclusive political cartoons to bracket the Democrats more creatively, but we ultimately kept it going because it was popular. 

We also created a Voter Action Center through our website, a one-stop shop allowing users to register to vote, request an absentee ballot, find Early Voting/Election Day voting locations, sign up to volunteer, find their local field office, etc.  The VAC utilized Google Maps so it was helpful for voters. 

 CF How did you leverage earned media?

 EV We quickly found that “earned media” is often synonymous with “new media” and we used it to our advantage to communicate with the grassroots and the media.  For example, we created a web ad once Tim Mahoney’s multiple affairs were exposed utilizing his own tape-recorded voice (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCp9mNtZkQM); the media loved it and it fired up the grassroots the way no email response ever could.  We had over 2500 hits the first day alone, which is pretty impressive for a state party web ad.

We also launched several microsites, including a Real World spinoff highlighting a Democrat congressional candidate.  Our Democrat fundraiser tracker microsite (http://rpof.org/dem/) garnered national attention; this was back when the Democrat presidential candidates were boycotting Florida because of the early primary.  Remember that they could come hold fundraisers in Florida, but the DNC forbade them from holding grassroots events. So we illustrated the hypocrisy and ensured that the negative narrative continued. 

Once Obama was the nominee, we rolled out the welcome mat for him for his first trip to the state, reminding people that he had not campaigned in Florida; the music was “Welcome Back Cotter” and it certainly got in your head. That microsite also got us quite a bit of national media. 

CF What new fundraising techniques did you use?

EV We tried our hand at low-dollar asks based on news and events.  For example, we launched a “67 Days, 67 Counties” 67 days out from the election, with a goal of  getting folks to donate a dollar for each of Florida’s 67 counties, based on the fact we only had 67 days left in the campaign.  As economic times got tougher though, we returned to more traditional fundraisers instead of asking mainstream Floridians to donate. That said, we will continue to identify news stories, holidays, events, etc. that we can take advantage of for non-traditional fundraising. 

CF What should readers/bloggers know about the Florida GOP?

EV We do things a little differently here in Florida.  Under Governor Crist and Chairman Greer’s leadership, we’ve focused on putting partisan rhetoric aside and instead running on our record.  It’s worked for us, keeping the Governor’s approval at record-breaking highs and allowing us to build the party during these Democrat-friendly times.  Florida was a bright spot on a relatively tough election day for the GOP, with zero Republicans defeated in the Florida Legislature and a strong showing among our Congressional candidates. Even in the extraordinarily-Democrat Broward County, the first Republican to win a countywide election in 30 years was elected Sheriff. 

Look, Floridians voted to maintain overwhelming Republican majorities in the State House and Senate, voted strongly to cut taxes, and voted to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman.  I think this demonstrates that we’re doing something right to get our message out, and I’m proud of that.

CF What campaign on the GOP side showed real innovation in fundraising?

BP – Although mainstream pundits never took Ron Paul seriously, the amount of money he raised as a dark horse candidate was outstanding.  The disappointing factor in giving this award to Ron Paul is that our party never took him seriously. Ron Paul brought a fundraising engine to the GOP side that had only been replicated by Governor Dean in 2004.  The difference is that the Democrat party took notice and invited him in to help with the revolution.  Our party made Ron Paul look like a fringe candidate who offered very little.  Maybe I am wrong on this but this is how it looked from the outside—which is where I was until July. 

CF What campaign on the GOP side had the most effective use of New Media?

BP – Although we were overshadowed by Barack Obama’s $600 million force and unlimited text messaging, the McCain campaign had an amazing online team which made up one of our bright spots.  

Stephan Dinan of the Washington Times posted a story in March crediting McCain’s blogger outreach as the simple aspect that kept the Senator alive during tumultuous times. During biweekly conference calls with McCain, bloggers provided the Senator the only opportunity outside of staged events to deliver his message.  After the implosion the mainstream media was busy asking questions regarding financial longevity and writing the Maverick’s obituary.  McCain found solace with bloggers who were interested in talking policy, Iraq, and Senator McCain’s favorite pork-barrel spending.   

McCain treated the blogosphere not as an addendum to the mainstream media, but a completely separate application that offered him the opportunity to have a conversation that didn’t concentrate on soundbites.   

Throughout the campaign, during the debates, and conventions our new media apparatus was aggressive and in my opinion better and more active than any other GOP or Dem candidate running.      

CF What campaign on the GOP side showed the greatest comeback?

BP – You almost have to give this to Ted Stevens just for being part of the game.  After being found guilty of seven felony charges he was still able to force overtime.  

Here’s hoping we can put Norm Coleman in this category. Four years ago, Norm Coleman seemed destined for bigger things and now he is holding on by the grit of his teeth. Minnesota is a very odd state.  In the last decade they elected Paul Wellstone, Jesse Ventura, Tim Pawlenty, and Al Franken has obviously been competitive.  These people have nothing in common.  It is possibly the most amazing state in the country. 

CF What GOP pollster was the most accurate?

BP – I think the biggest obstacle in declaring a winner here is the simple fact that we were inundated with polling in 2008. We saw more polls during the month of October than we did the entire 2004 election, making it impossible to determine who is the most accurate.  On a national level which is where most of my focus was, we were behind nearly every day post Sept. 15 (give or take).  So I think the pollsters clearly got it right.  

I do think that this election finally took its toll on national polls.  When will people realize that the only thing that matters in presidential politics is 12-15 state polls where the race will be decided.  And looking back, I am still shocked that we lost Indiana… (CF …me too.)

CF What GOP mail vendor had the most creative and effective designs?

BP – I am a huge supporter of Faulkner Strategies, although I have seen some work from two Southern Californiavendors in the past that I was extremely impressed with. One is Jim Bieber of Bieber Communications and the other is Eric Brown of Dynamic Marketing.  Both are creative, innovative and do strong work delivering the message. 

CF What GOP campaign showed the best ability to integrate it’s website into its’ over all campaign operation?

BP – Again I would go with Ron Paul and add Mike Huckabee. Right out of Joe Trippi’s 2004 handbook both of these campaign’s used the website as a viral stomping ground for support.  These campaigns used their website as more than a virtual doorfront, it was a meeting place of ideas that brought people together using Meet Up, etc.   

As we all know the bulk of Mike Huckabee’s support came from the Christian right whose social circles are well defined by churches, home-schooling, or small groups.  Huckabee was able to transcend this and move his supporters in and out of their common place to spread his message. 

CF What GOP candidate has the biggest ideas for the future of our party (even if they lost)?

BP – For what she stood for I think Sarah Palin did a lot in this regard.   

Much has been said about the selection of Sarah Palin.  Was it the right choice, a political choice, or the reason we lost?  Questions aside it provided the GOP something we desperately needed, which is a different voice.  For decades our party has succeeded yet suffered from an old guard unwilling to hand over the reigns or at the very least address the changing electorate. 

At a time when our party is badly outnumbered in Washington there is one simple prescription for our ailments.  We must recruit different Republican candidates and leaders from a precinct level up. 

At a minimum Sarah Palin proves that the Grand Old Party is ushering in new voices. We will always survive, but in order to succeed we need to bring in more Hispanic, African American, Asian, and female voices to our party all across the country.  

CF What GOP campaign showed the best use of its email list?

BP – Being at the top of the ticket certainly has its advantages and the email list is one of them. Until the general election funds took over, the McCain campaign used its email list extremely well and were able to raise substantial dollars while doing it.  Outside of fundraising our lists were used to drive crowds and host tele-townhalls.  I though we did this very well.

Chris Faulkner

Before I rant, full disclosure – I worked for the RNC Victory Operation in conjunction with the BC04 operation so I am far from unbiased.

Ok, credit where it is due – Obama and his team started as deep underdogs and took on the big time establishment candidate in the primary and had a huge victory. I think it is fair to say that his primary campaign was very impressive and should be mentioned when considering the best campaigns of all time. However his general election campaign was mediocre at best. Before we anoint his team as without peer lets compare the OB08 effort with the BC04 effort.

OB08 Ground game – This has been getting a lot of press lately and no doubt it was impressive but c’mon it was not like they started from zero. How many hundreds of millions have been spent on the left in the last 4 years by numerous 3^rd party groups to build this capacity? And what about Howard Dean? Yeah, that guy. I humbly submit that there is no way Obama’s team could have had their success (online and off) without the experiences of Howard Dean’s team in 03 and 04. There is also a lot of hay being made about only 50% of his cash on TV (still broke every record for spending in this medium) and more than usual on Field. That is great (I am a HUGE fan of Field ops but that is another post) but when you have a few bucks short of a billion dollars you can do that kind of stuff. Again, I will give him credit for breaking all kinds of new ground with online organizing to reinvent how Field Ops work. But at the end of the day, after the hype and flash there was almost no increase in turnout when compared to 2004.

BC04 Ground game – Starting from less than zero in most battleground states they had to change a deep seated culture that “phone banks are for College Republicans and door-to-door is for Democrats”. Had the $ advantage of an incumbent President but also the baggage of an unpopular war and an upside down right track/wrong track. Had to work with staff and activists who had little to no experience on how to organize quality Field Ops. When the polls and experts said that they would lose…something amazing happened…they found MILLIONS of new voters that made the difference and set new records for turnout.

So in summary OB08 had a double digit generic ballot advantage, record amount of $ to spend on Field Ops, a historic economic collapse associated with the incumbent party, a candidate able to motivate and maximize large parts of the Democrat base and a Republican Party brand that had completely cratered…the better question is how did anyone expect them to lose?

The Obama Team’s accomplishment was “probable” not “historic”.

Chris Faulkner

Nope, not even close. Mitch Daniels won reelection by 18 points.

How big was the win for Governor Daniels? By the numbers it went like this:

With 1,563,873 votes Governor Daniels received more votes than any other Hoosier candidate for office…ever.

• Daniels received 24% of the Democrat vote.
• Daniels received 20% of the African American vote.
• Daniels won the Independent vote by 18 points.
• Daniels won EVERY age group including young voters (51%-42%).

A Republican Governor won reelection in a purple state in 2008 not by playing it safe but by being a leader.

How did he do it?

• Daniels talked about “change” in 2003 before “change” was cool. When first elected, he inherited a dysfunctional state government, hundreds of millions of dollars in debt. Since taking office, he has had only balanced budgets, the biggest tax cut in state history, telecom reform, ethics reform, and millions of dollars have been paid back to schools and local governments. Indiana is now the only state in the nation to have a fully-funded ten-year transportation plan with no debt or tax increase.
• Hoosiers made a connection with the governor’s steadfast leadership and work ethic. Voters recognized his constant focus on attracting a record number of new and diversified jobs, dramatically reducing homeowner’s property taxes, and the state’s immediate, organized and effective response to the severe weather/record floods in the summer of 2008.
• Daniels was supported by a formidable coalition of both typical and atypical interest groups. Because of his approach, he received backing by union building trades as well as the Chamber of Commerce, the Manufacturer’s Association and the NFIB. The FOP and prominent veteran leaders were seen on TV ads pledging their support in their own non-partisan words. The International Association of Fire Fighters supported Daniels and Obama. African American leaders passed out Governor Daniels suggestion boxes to urban barbershops and hair salons. Fluent in Spanish, Daniels earned the support of traditionally Democrat Latino voters.
• Job creation and tough line on fiscal responsibility. The Midwest is a sea of red ink as every state faces serious budget deficits…every state except one. Indiana.
• Daniels kept it real. He has remained in touch and accessible to average Hoosiers through constant statewide travel. His view is always from the taxpayer’s perspective and that showed on Election Day. Voters came to appreciate his preference to travel the state on his Harley Davidson motorcycle and his insistence to stay overnight in Hoosier homes, not in hotels.

Governor Daniels is term limited and will exit office in 2012…hmmm what could he do in 2012?

In the coming weeks I will interview consultants, campaign staff and candidates to look at the tactics and where they made a difference. Before I start the interviews I want to hear from you on what questions you want answered.

Some of the questions I am considering asking are:

• What campaign on the GOP side showed real innovation in fundraising?
• What campaign on the GOP side had the most effective use of New Media?
• What candidate on the GOP side best leveraged earned media to get traction?
• What campaign on the GOP side showed the greatest comeback?
• What campaign on the GOP side showed the best mobilization of grassroots supporters?
• What campaign on the GOP side had the most effective GOTV organization?
• What GOP media consultant showed the most appreciation for web video and integrated it into their mix?
• What GOP pollster was the most accurate?
• What GOP mail vendor had the most creative and effective designs? (yes, I am biased)
• What GOP campaign showed the best ability to integrate it’s website into its’ over all campaign operation?
• What GOP candidate has the biggest ideas for the future of our party (even if they lost)?
• What GOP campaign showed the best use of its email list?
• What GOP campaign was really good at the small stuff? (yard signs, bumper stickers, t-shirts, etc)

  I also have a sizeable list of people to interview, if you have some you would like to see, let me know.

  Email your suggested questions and interviewees to chris@faulknerstrategies.com

Great post on how useful it can be and how to use Twitter.

Also, a complete shameless plug for myself.

A couple of things first, congratulations to President-elect Obama and his supporters. In 2000 and 2004 I was dismayed by the lack of respect and abundance of contempt that President Bush (and those of us that supported him) received from those that lost. Regardless of the deep and substantive differences I have with President-elect Obama it would be a mistake to not recognize how historic his election is. He is the first African-American President and represents the completion of another chapter in America’s troubled history on racial equality. His campaign shattered traditional models of volunteer mobilization, fundraising and technology use. All of which are good things for American democracy. I am sure that in the coming months I will have strong words for him in difference of policy but there will be plenty of time for that.

Next, leave Senator McCain alone. Enough of the arm chair quarterbacks and back seat drivers meaningless whining. In most polling I saw, we could not even get 30% of Americans to admit they were Republicans so it is no surprise that we could not get a majority of them to vote that way.

Time and time again I hear voters tell campaigns to “not tell them why the other guy is wrong, tell us what your guy will do!” Maybe we as Republicans should consider that question a bit before we start getting a worked up and wild-eyed. In 1996 we screamed and yelled about how unethical and corrupt President Clinton was. You can ask President Dole how well that worked.

Who are we and why should voters give us a chance again?

Are we fiscal conservatives or fans of big government solutions? Are we social conservatives, moderates or something in-between? Do we believe in free market solutions or tariff managed trade? Do we believe in being “safe” all the time or are we ok with balance of less security for more liberty? Do we believe in “exporting” the gift of democracy or letting others figure it out for themselves? Do we think that there is still some room in our country for people who were not born here but believe in the idea of America as much as we do? Are we helping the “poor” by not making them pay taxes?

I used to think I could articulate the “Republican” position on these pretty well but lately I am not so sure.

Even before McCain conceded I had emails and text messages from friends and journalists asking if Governor Palin would be our standard bearer for 2012. Whoa, let’s hold our horses a bit. We need to know where we are going before we pick a leader. The good news is we have some time on our hands to figure that out now that Democrats control both houses of Congress and the White House.

I have been proud to be a Republican in the past and am sure I will be in the future. Our party has a great history of shaping our nation’s policy and providing the great leaders to do it.

Wow, even the media gets that early and absentee voting is the future of GOTV.

In Macomb County, the figure was one household in every 285, meaning that 1,834 homeowners received the bad news in just one month. The Macomb County foreclosure rate puts it in the top three percent of all U.S. counties in the number of distressed homeowners.”



I have seen some biased and ridiculous articles in my time but this is just plain dumb. I am not speaking on behalf of the GOP or any of our state parties here.

It not suppression you moron, it is making sure that only eligible voters get to vote. Every year the Republican Party has reams of documented evidence that illegal ballots are cast from abandoned homes and or vacant lots.

Maybe a better question is why a city run completely by Democrats has such a high foreclosure rate? Maybe someone might want to ask why these, so called, community groups have to turn to incendiary tactics like some bogus story of voter intimidation? ACORN has a comment??? Give me a break, how many ACORN organizers have been charged with voter fraud this year? 5, 10, 20?

How many documented cases of GOP voter suppression are there? The silence is deafening…

But how many times do we have to prove that organizations like ACORN are taking advantage of disadvantaged voters before the press gets a clue?

Also, The Michigan Messenger is not a legitimate “news” source. It is run by the Center for Independent Media which is run by an Obama donor…go figure.